Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:35:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2396…acd8 crypto 860 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (237 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$728 (+2%) realized +$709 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%433W / 656L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day237.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$623
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (237 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 442 -81.4% -83.2% 10% 8% -68.2%
≤30d 1089 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 34% -17.7%
≤90d 1089 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 34% -17.7%
all 1089 -30.1% -36.8% 40% 34% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover237.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 34% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -42.8% 27% -25.6%
15% -48.4% 21% -32.8%
20% -53.4% 15% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$709
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses433 / 656
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1089 / 860
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$53
Trades / day237.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1089 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 45¢ 100¢ $16 $35 +$19 (+121%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $315 −$349 -111%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $6 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $14 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $15 48m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $6 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $3 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $4 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.12 · official $76.13 · 3500 history records