Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x2392…f865 other 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 461d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7 (+2%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate65%13W / 7L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$1
world 39% +$6
crypto 6% +$1
finance 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
politics 3% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 12% -7.2%
≤90d 8 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 12% -7.2%
all 20 -2.5% -11.8% 65% 5% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 5% -7.8%
10% -20.2% 0% -16.6%
15% -28.0% 0% -24.7%
20% -35.0% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.37 per $1 lost it wins $5.37
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

461d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses13 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage461d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $33 +$3 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $14 +$1 +9%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $51 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $38 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $14 +$3 +20%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 27 $10 $0 +4%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $10 $0 +4%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 28 $12 $0 -1%
Bank of England rate cut in March meeting? Mar 21 $11 $0 +2%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 21 $1 $0 -4%
Will another show be the top global Netflix show this week? Mar 19 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $47 58m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $25 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $7 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $3 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 38¢ $33 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $13 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $13 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 23d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 24d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $38 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $35 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $38 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $38 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $12 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $26 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $38 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 25d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 25d
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $1 335d
Will Walmart buy TikTok? SELL No 99¢ $10 356d
Will the next Pope be from North America? BUY No 98¢ $1 410d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records