Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:47:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

23 0x2392…8cb7 tech 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$43 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate93%14W / 1L

Drawdown1%max

Avg bet$319per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$2,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	7	+0.2%	-9.3%	86%	0%	-9.3%
≤90d	15	+0.5%	-9.1%	93%	0%	-9.1%
all	15	+0.5%	-9.1%	93%	0%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	0%	-9.1%
10%	-17.8%	0%	-17.8%
15%	-25.7%	0%	-25.7%
20%	-33.0%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 47% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$0 · ×6.56 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×91.81 per $1 lost it wins $91.81

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage

Net worth$2,039

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$21

Win rate (resolved)93%

Wins / losses14 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)15 / 20

History coverage71d

Avg bet$319

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown1%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	No	99¢	100¢	$582	$584	+$2 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$479	$480	+$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	No	100¢	100¢	$363	$363	−$1 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	95¢	98¢	$309	$318	+$9 (+3%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	92¢	96¢	$284	$295	+$10 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	Jun 18	$202	$0	-0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	Jun 11	$263	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	Jun 11	$280	$0	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 11	$288	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	Jun 11	$388	+$1	+0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Jun 11	$388	+$2	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	Jun 11	$407	+$3	+1%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 09	$184	+$1	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	May 09	$214	$0	+0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	May 09	$254	+$3	+1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	May 09	$263	+$1	+0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	May 09	$265	+$1	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	May 09	$271	+$1	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	May 09	$276	+$1	+0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	May 09	$271	+$7	+3%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	97¢	$155	1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	SELL No	100¢	$156	1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	96¢	$202	1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	SELL No	100¢	$201	1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	92¢	$154	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	84¢	$83	7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June?	BUY No	100¢	$202	7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?	BUY No	99¢	$583	7d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$519	7d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June?	BUY No	100¢	$479	7d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$263	40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$388	40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$280	40d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	BUY No	99¢	$407	40d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$288	40d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$388	40d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$271	70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$263	70d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	BUY No	99¢	$254	70d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$184	70d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$265	70d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$214	70d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April?	BUY No	100¢	$276	70d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April	BUY Yes	97¢	$271	70d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,039.23 · official $2,039.23 (match) · 38 history records