Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:12:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2392…5952 other 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$19 (-13%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%5W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$21
sports 23% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤30d 10 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -17.5%
≤90d 10 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -17.5%
all 10 -25.9% -33.0% 50% 50% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 50% -17.5%
10% -39.4% 40% -25.4%
15% -45.2% 40% -32.6%
20% -50.6% 30% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$4 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $19 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$5 +56%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +47%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $21 4m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 5m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $33 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $15 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $4 26h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 38h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 40h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $4 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.60 · official $20.60 (match) · 25 history records