Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x238f…3015
other · 344 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$48 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$38 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$75
Realized−$38
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses266 / 409
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions87
Markets (closed)675 / 344
History coverage7d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day512.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 87 History 675 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$38
14 days−$38
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? No 17¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+488%)
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? No 35¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+183%)
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+426%)
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+334%)
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial election? Yes 19¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+432%)
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election No 17¢ 100¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+488%)
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? No 29¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+244%)
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+298%)
Starmer out by June 15, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 26¢ 52¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+103%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 22¢ 56¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+160%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? No 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 8-14? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? Yes 19¢ 41¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? No 26¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+29%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? No 6¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-68%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 12 $1 +$5 +566%
Over $6M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +361%
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$3 +426%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Jun 12 $1 +$3 +432%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $1 +$2 +407%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +244%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +307%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1296%
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440? Jun 12 $0 $0 +400%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 12 $0 +$11 +184041%
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -117%
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Marozsan (+1.5) Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Will Russia enter Krasnopillya by May 31? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +303%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 8? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Jun 12 $2 −$5 -280%
Nothing Ever Happens: April Jun 12 $0 $0 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -165%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $2 +$6 +310%
Will the next Google Gemini model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +1670%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -2549%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 +408%
Will Belinda Bencic win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ap Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ap Jun 12 $0 $0 -200%
Port Vale FC vs. Barnsley FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $4 −$7 -200%
Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 28, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +108%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -44%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -104%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 14? Jun 12 $2 −$4 -200%
Will Rasmus Hojgaard win the 2026 Masters tournament? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +10470%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $3 −$4 -115%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 202 Jun 12 $0 −$1 -325%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +36%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Nickeil Alexander-Walker win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Play Jun 12 $1 −$1 -126%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$5 +16006%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +4111%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 +5070%
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $0 +$2 +881%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 −$4 -200%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 12 $0 $0 -268%
Kahrabaa Ismailia FC vs. Ismaily SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$4 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 31% +$1
world 31% +$51
tech 14% −$9
politics 9% +$11
crypto 6% +$3
finance 3% −$2
sports 3% +$9
culture 2% +$3
economics 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL Yes 7¢ $3 5m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6m
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? BUY No 5¢ $1 6m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11m
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY Yes 5¢ $2 12m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 21m
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 32m
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34m
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 34m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 35m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY No 2¢ $2 36m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 36m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 37m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 37m
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 38m
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 40m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 42m
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 43m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+61.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 675 +78.9% +61.9% 39% 32% -10.4%
≤30d 675 +78.9% +61.9% 39% 32% -10.4%
≤90d 675 +78.9% +61.9% 39% 32% -10.4%
all 675 +78.9% +61.9% 39% 32% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover512.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +61.9% 32% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here +46.4% 24% -19.0%
15% +32.3% 19% -26.8%
20% +19.3% 15% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.21 · official $72.59 · 3500 history records