trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 60% | 40% | -4.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 60% | 40% | -4.7% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 60% | 40% | -4.7% |
| all | 5 | -24.3% | -31.5% | 60% | 40% | -4.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -31.5% | 40% | -4.7% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -38.0% | 20% | -13.8% |
| 15% | -44.0% | 20% | -22.1% |
| 20% | -49.5% | 20% | -29.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 56¢ | 38¢ | $942 | $650 | −$292 (-31%) |
| Starmer out by June 30, 2026? | No | 71¢ | 68¢ | $398 | $383 | −$16 (-4%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 20¢ | 14¢ | $475 | $351 | −$124 (-26%) |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 69¢ | $314 | $290 | −$24 (-8%) |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 59¢ | 60¢ | $284 | $289 | +$5 (+2%) |
| Starmer out by July 31, 2026? | No | 43¢ | 39¢ | $225 | $202 | −$23 (-10%) |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? | No | 75¢ | 72¢ | $58 | $55 | −$2 (-4%) |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? | Yes | 58¢ | 55¢ | $38 | $36 | −$2 (-5%) |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Zohran Mamdani by June 30, 2026? | No | 74¢ | 72¢ | $28 | $27 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | No | 56¢ | 34¢ | $29 | $18 | −$11 (-39%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $222 | +$18 | +8% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $16 | +$9 | +55% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? | Jun 18 | $23 | +$4 | +16% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | Jun 18 | $9 | −$9 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $7 | −$7 | -100% |