Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
23 0x238c…57b1 sports 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,017 (+42%) realized +$6,032 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR69%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$961per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$4,110
other 36% +$1,768
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +69%
net ROI/market (all)+11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +23.6% +11.9% 69% 69% +29.8%
≤30d 13 +23.6% +11.9% 69% 69% +29.8%
≤90d 13 +23.6% +11.9% 69% 69% +29.8%
all 13 +23.6% +11.9% 69% 69% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.9% 69% +29.8%
10% +1.1% 69% +17.4%
15% -8.6% 62% +6.0%
20% -17.6% 62% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$913 vs −$580 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.54 per $1 lost it wins $3.54
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$6,032
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$961
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? No 30¢ 29¢ $300 $285 −$15 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,011 +$602 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,518 +$982 +65%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $613 −$600 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,018 +$1,390 +137%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $1,518 +$1,024 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $507 +$402 +79%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,285 +$739 +32%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $510 −$500 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,362 +$1,432 +105%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $223 −$221 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 30¢ $306 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $1,010 16h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $1,011 18h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1,518 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $613 36h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 42¢ $1,018 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,518 41h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 43¢ $509 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,016 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 55¢ $507 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $2,285 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $510 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1,362 3d
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 67¢ $223 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.40 · official $285.50 (match) · 25 history records