Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x238c…4399 sports 30 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-2%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$8
sports 47% +$44
world 2% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 47% -8.0%
≤30d 30 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 47% -8.0%
≤90d 30 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 47% -8.0%
all 30 -16.0% -24.0% 47% 47% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 47% -8.0%
10% -31.3% 47% -16.8%
15% -37.9% 37% -24.9%
20% -44.0% 20% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage6d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $60 +$20 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$15 -29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$33 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $94 +$37 +39%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $22 +$15 +68%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 −$39 -78%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$9 -85%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$26 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$15 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$24 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$7 -23%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -94%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$5 -47%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over $1 22m
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 57¢ $36 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $60 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 79¢ $50 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $11 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 72¢ $11 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $40 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 9h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 9h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia $1 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 10h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $10 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 10h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 10h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 39¢ $10 10h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $30 45h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $20 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $23 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records