Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:58:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

23 0x238b…1bbd other 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$3,516 (+55%) realized +$3,511 · open +$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip

Net edge+9%after slip

Net WR75%break-even

Win rate100%4W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$1,290per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$415now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 597d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +75%

net ROI/market (all)+13.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	67%	+0.5%
≤30d	3	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	67%	+0.5%
≤90d	3	+11.4%	+0.8%	100%	67%	+0.5%
all	4	+25.5%	+13.5%	100%	75%	+43.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.5%	75%	+43.1%
10%	+2.7%	25%	+29.4%
15%	-7.3%	25%	+16.9%
20%	-16.4%	25%	+5.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 97% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +11% too few recent

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +25% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$878 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage

Net worth$415

Realized+$3,511

Unrealized+$5

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses4 / 0

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage597d

Avg bet$1,290

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	No	98¢	99¢	$410	$415	+$5 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$371	+$40	+11%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	Jun 21	$351	+$22	+6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$301	+$52	+17%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 06	$5,015	+$3,399	+68%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	98¢	$410	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	90¢	$371	4h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?	BUY Yes	94¢	$351	25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	85¢	$301	42h
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	60¢	$5,015	597d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $414.82 · official $414.82 (match) · 9 history records