Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x238b…44eb crypto 1788 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (107 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate64%1037W / 577L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day106.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$308
7 days−$146
14 days+$103
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$419
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (107 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 670 +3.3% -6.6% 57% 56% -20.6%
≤30d 1614 +9.2% -1.2% 64% 63% -7.1%
≤90d 1614 +9.2% -1.2% 64% 63% -7.1%
all 1614 +9.2% -1.2% 64% 63% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 63% -7.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.7% 56% -16.0%
15% -19.3% 44% -24.1%
20% -27.2% 37% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses1037 / 577
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1614 / 1788
History coverage22d ⚠
Avg bet$1
Trades / day106.7
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1614 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$2 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records