Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:44:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2388…5a3e crypto 598 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$935 (-3%) realized −$1,423 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate65%387W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,442
7 days−$2,450
14 days−$2,450
30 days−$2,450
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$1,355
other 1% +$11
weather 1% −$98
sports 0% +$17
politics 0% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 186 -21.9% -29.3% 50% 37% -24.9%
≤30d 186 -21.9% -29.3% 50% 37% -24.9%
≤90d 561 -8.5% -17.2% 64% 39% -14.8%
all 597 -6.4% -15.3% 65% 41% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 41% -13.9%
10% -23.4% 29% -22.1%
15% -30.8% 19% -29.7%
20% -37.6% 13% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$29 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,423
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses387 / 210
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)597 / 598
History coverage122d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 597 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Down 78¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Up 69¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $81 +$25 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $74 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$33 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $107 −$72 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$46 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$37 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $30 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$19 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $302 −$300 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$45 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $164 +$97 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $203 −$102 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $257 +$87 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $152 +$28 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 14 $152 +$41 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$79 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$28 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$37 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$32 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $81 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$18 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1823 history records