Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:23:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x2388…8cb0 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$222 (-12%) realized −$222 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$30
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$78
sports 44% −$115
world 5% −$16
politics 2% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-38.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 -44.9% -50.1% 0% 0% -52.6%
≤90d 13 -31.5% -38.0% 15% 0% -20.6%
all 13 -31.5% -38.0% 15% 0% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.0% 0% -20.6%
10% -43.9% 0% -28.2%
15% -49.3% 0% -35.1%
20% -54.3% 0% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$35 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage79d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NATO article 5 before 2027? Jun 27 $64 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 19 $26 −$14 -52%
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? Jun 18 $28 −$16 -60%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 01 $70 −$70 -100%
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $44 −$1 -2%
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5) May 30 $84 −$84 -100%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? May 30 $71 $0 +0%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) Apr 26 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Apr 17 $379 −$8 -2%
Spread: Crystal Palace FC (-2.5) Apr 15 $332 +$17 +5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? Apr 12 $329 $0 +0%
Spread: Universidad Central de Venezuela FC (-2.5) Apr 11 $334 +$7 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL Yes $32 1h
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL Yes $32 1h
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes $32 2h
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY Yes $32 2h
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY Yes $14 8d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY Yes $13 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $6 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? SELL Yes $5 8d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $14 9d
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30? BUY Yes $13 9d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $35 25d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes $35 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $22 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $21 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $23 25d
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $22 25d
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5) BUY Real Sociedad de Fútbol B $43 27d
Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-2.5) BUY Real Sociedad de Fútbol B $40 27d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes $35 27d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes $36 27d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $8 28d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $14 28d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $14 28d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $7 28d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $14 28d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $14 28d
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) BUY Real Oviedo $4 62d
Spread: Real Oviedo (-2.5) BUY Real Oviedo $12 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 61 history records