Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:44:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2386…1a2d sports 446 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$658 (-3%) realized −$653 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%171W / 274L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$18
14 days+$21
30 days+$55
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$74
other 22% −$865
world 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +47.3%
≤30d 9 +86.2% +68.4% 56% 56% +98.5%
≤90d 17 +24.9% +13.0% 41% 41% -1.0%
all 445 +3.8% -6.0% 38% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 34% -11.4%
10% -15.0% 29% -19.8%
15% -23.2% 22% -27.6%
20% -30.8% 18% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$29 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$653
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses171 / 274
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)445 / 446
History coverage178d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $32 $26 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $1 $0 +25%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $4 +$2 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $24 +$16 +67%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$8 +136%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $4 +$36 +900%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $20 +$20 +102%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 24 $19 −$18 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $27 −$25 -90%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $7 −$4 -64%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $5 +$5 +100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Feb 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 2 Winner Feb 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Levante UD: O/U 4.5 Feb 22 $9 −$6 -72%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Feb 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $14 −$2 -14%
Will US Lecce vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? Feb 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $7 +$5 +82%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $13 +$25 +192%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $36 +$3 +8%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 217.5 Feb 20 $29 +$22 +77%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX - Game 3 Winner Feb 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Will AS Monaco FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? Feb 17 $26 +$1 +4%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a dra Feb 15 $22 −$22 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 4 Winner Feb 15 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Feb 15 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Feb 15 $79 −$36 -45%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $47 +$11 +24%
Will Hamburger SV vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? Feb 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Como 1907 vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Feb 14 $24 −$14 -58%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Feb 14 $70 +$20 +28%
Bucks vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5 Feb 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $74 −$74 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 12 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 3 Winner Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Warriors Feb 12 $109 +$38 +35%
Thunder vs. Suns Feb 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Feb 12 $102 +$11 +11%
Knicks vs. 76ers Feb 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Qatar Total Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Camila Osorio Feb 11 $94 +$3 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $32 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 8¢ $1 4d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 31¢ $5 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 31¢ $1 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $3 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $1 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 21¢ $0 5d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 60¢ $24 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Top Esports 8¢ $2 12d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $14 12d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $6 12d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 5¢ $1 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 5¢ $0 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 10¢ $3 13d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY JD Gaming 8¢ $2 26d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 5¢ $2 27d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 5¢ $2 27d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In SELL Weibo Gaming 66¢ $40 33d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 6¢ $3 33d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 32¢ $20 33d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 31¢ $16 33d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 47¢ $4 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 33d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $27 33d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Nongshim Red Force 15¢ $6 34d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Cavaliers 6¢ $1 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks SELL Cavaliers 10¢ $1 35d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 22¢ $7 35d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 5¢ $1 36d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.25 · official $26.25 (match) · 1342 history records