Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2383…072f sports 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$3,319 (+20%) realized +$4,399 · open −$1,080
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$1,372per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$3,674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$3,222
other 31% +$1,401
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+41.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +54.3% +39.6% 71% 71% +24.4%
≤30d 8 +56.8% +41.9% 75% 75% +35.0%
≤90d 8 +56.8% +41.9% 75% 75% +35.0%
all 8 +56.8% +41.9% 75% 75% +35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +41.9% 75% +35.0%
10% +28.3% 75% +22.1%
15% +15.9% 75% +10.3%
20% +4.5% 75% -0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +49% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,367 vs −$1,250 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.28 per $1 lost it wins $3.28
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$3,674
Realized+$4,399
Unrealized−$1,080
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions4
Markets (closed)8 / 12
History coverage14d
Avg bet$1,372
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $1,500 $1,513 +$13 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 13¢ $1,454 $1,308 −$145 (-10%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 32¢ $1,000 $851 −$149 (-15%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Under 43¢ $800 $1 −$799 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,519 +$1,067 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $613 +$1,456 +238%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $1,250 +$953 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,012 +$628 +62%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1,519 −$1,500 -99%
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $1,017 +$1,361 +134%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3,678 +$2,737 +74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1,519 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 43¢ $814 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,019 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 8h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $507 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,378 8h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $1,250 12h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $613 12h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1,017 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 12h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1,012 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $911 12h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $1,017 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 13h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,491 10d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 99¢ $6,415 13d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $3,678 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,673.51 · official $3,673.51 (match) · 33 history records