Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x2382…4628 sports 915 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 171d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,743 (+71%) realized +$7,753 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%523W / 330L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$260now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 171d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$51
other 32% +$182
politics 5% −$15
world 3% −$9
tech 2% +$12
finance 2% −$14
crypto 0% −$7
weather 0% +$3
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 +29.8% +17.4% 48% 48% +1.0%
≤30d 300 +15.2% +4.2% 46% 44% -9.9%
≤90d 300 +15.2% +4.2% 46% 44% -9.9%
all 853 +10.4% -0.1% 61% 39% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 39% -7.6%
10% -9.7% 24% -16.4%
15% -18.4% 19% -24.5%
20% -26.4% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$260
Realized+$7,753
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses523 / 330
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions62
Markets (closed)853 / 915
History coverage171d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 853 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? No 20¢ 97¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+387%)
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? No 59¢ 97¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+65%)
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? No 84¢ 86¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Fake Clone" or "Fake Cloning" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Finals? No 76¢ 84¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Will Warsh say "Chair" during June Press Conference? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 74¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump say "Greatest" during UFC 250? No 28¢ 86¢ $2 $8 +$5 (+207%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? No 70¢ 74¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+5%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 50+ times during June Press Conference? No 60¢ 74¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+22%)
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference? No 70¢ 72¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? No 68¢ 69¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 61¢ 67¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? No 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference? No 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 76¢ 65¢ $8 $6 −$1 (-14%)
Will Warsh say "Stock" during June Press Conference? No 66¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 22¢ 62¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+182%)
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? No 45¢ 30¢ $9 $6 −$3 (-32%)
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? No 60¢ 59¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Warsh say "Trend" during June Press Conference? No 60¢ 57¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 65¢ 98¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+50%)
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during June Press Conference? No 40¢ 55¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+38%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? No 34¢ 54¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 53¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Warsh say "Job" 15+ times during June Press Conference? No 44¢ 51¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump say "Ballroom" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +257%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Trump say "World" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $6 +$4 +56%
Will Trump say "Fight" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Trump say "Hell" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Trump say "Stage" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $7 +$3 +47%
Will Trump say "Biden" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Trump say "Ukraine" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during meeting with F Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "World Cup" during meeting with French President? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Dana White" during UFC 250? Jun 15 $6 +$4 +70%
Will anyone say "Dimensional" or "Interdimensional" during Rick and Mo Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Trump say "Winner" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $13 −$4 -29%
Will anyone say "Space" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
Will anyone say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Rick and Mort Jun 14 $4 +$1 +36%
Will anyone say "Summer" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +14%
Will anyone say "Ninja" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will anyone say "Password" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $6 +$3 +43%
Will anyone say "Morty" 10+ times during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $21 +$6 +27%
Will anyone say "Possible" or "Impossible" during Rick and Morty E4 S9 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +50%
Will anyone say "Clone" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will anyone say "Bird" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $8 +$4 +47%
Will anyone say "Sleep" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -32%
Will anyone say "President" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +23%
Will anyone say "Existence" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Trump say "Strong" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will anyone say "Jerry" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 14 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 14 $17 −$11 -63%
Will anyone say "Six Seven" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Will the announcers say "Eye poke" during UFC 250? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will anyone say "Robot" or "Bot" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will anyone say "Evil" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $2 +$10 +538%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $2 +$10 +482%
Will the announcers say "Upset" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $8 +$2 +32%
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $2 +$8 +488%
Will Trump say "Fake News" during UFC 250? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $8 +$9 +116%
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 13 $8 +$12 +150%
Will Trump say "Washington" during UFC 250? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "UFC" 3+ times during UFC 250? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the announcers say "Choke" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Freedom" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the announcers say "Gas Tank" or "Tired" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "Nasty" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Topuria" or "Gaethje" 15+ times during UFC 25 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the announcers say "UFC History" during UFC 250? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the announcers say "Nice Jab" or "Good Jab" 3+ times during UFC 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 74¢ $7 49m
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY No 74¢ $7 1h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Will "Fake Clone" or "Fake Cloning" be said during the Valorant Master BUY No 76¢ $8 1h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY No 74¢ $6 1h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 53¢ $1 5h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 53¢ $5 6h
Will "Tour De Force" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 G BUY Yes 17¢ $1 8h
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY No 24¢ $2 11h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 63¢ $5 16h
Will "Shorty" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fi BUY No 23¢ $1 16h
Will "Pearl" be said during the Valorant Masters London 2026 Grand Fin BUY No 12¢ $1 16h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 39¢ $0 17h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY Yes 39¢ $4 17h
Will the announcers say "Weather" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 53¢ $5 17h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 14¢ $1 24h
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 18¢ $2 25h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 56¢ $1 25h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 68¢ $7 26h
Will the announcers say "Ankle" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 76¢ $8 26h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 74¢ $3 26h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 70¢ $4 26h
Will the announcers say "Ronaldo" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 70¢ $7 26h
Will the announcers say "Hat Trick" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY Yes 18¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Legend" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wo BUY No 45¢ $4 27h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY No 20¢ $2 27h
Will the announcers say "Shot" 20+ times during the England vs Croatia BUY Yes 72¢ $7 28h
Will the announcers say "Penalty" during the England vs Croatia FIFA W BUY No 19¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $260.04 · official $259.30 (match) · 3500 history records