Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:23:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2381…9c3e other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 324d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$53 · open +$45
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate62%5W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$101
7 days−$66
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$23
economics 23% +$3
politics 7% −$9
tech 5% +$3
sports 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -40.5% -46.2% 50% 50% -30.6%
≤30d 3 -13.1% -21.4% 67% 67% -25.3%
≤90d 4 -12.7% -21.0% 50% 50% -24.2%
all 8 -16.4% -24.4% 62% 38% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 38% -14.7%
10% -31.6% 12% -22.8%
15% -38.2% 12% -30.3%
20% -44.3% 0% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$47 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

324d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses5 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage324d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $110 $154 +$45 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $103 −$101 -98%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $183 +$35 +19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $28 +$12 +42%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? May 15 $80 −$9 -12%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 05 $60 +$3 +5%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Jan 13 $250 +$33 +13%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 30 $250 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.10 · official $154.10 (match) · 25 history records