Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:59:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x2381…a409 sports 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,148 (+51%) realized +$1,152 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate100%16W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1,172now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$560
30 days+$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$4
sports 37% +$1,129
economics 2% +$1
world 2% $0
finance 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +172.5% +146.6% 100% 100% +146.6%
≤90d 11 +45.5% +31.6% 100% 36% +99.0%
all 16 +31.5% +18.9% 100% 25% +86.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 25% +86.9%
10% +7.6% 25% +69.0%
15% -2.8% 25% +52.7%
20% -12.4% 25% +37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +120% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +107% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +62% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$1,172
Realized+$1,152
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses16 / 0
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage178d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 37¢ 36¢ $643 $634 −$9 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $541 $537 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $324 +$560 +172%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $188 +$324 +172%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $130 +$84 +65%
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31? May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 202 May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? May 07 $13 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m May 07 $17 $0 +0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? May 07 $21 +$1 +6%
Magic vs. 76ers May 07 $195 +$161 +83%
Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by January 31? Feb 05 $16 $0 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 05 $19 $0 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 05 $24 $0 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$45 in January? Feb 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jan 08 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,171.58 · official $1,171.58 (match) · 36 history records