Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x237f…c69d world 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate37%17W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 76% −$6
politics 9% $0
other 8% −$3
sports 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 13 -8.3% -17.1% 15% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 13 -8.3% -17.1% 15% 0% -10.1%
all 46 -4.0% -13.2% 37% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 2% -10.3%
10% -21.5% 2% -18.9%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.0% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses17 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage452d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 68¢ 66¢ $46 $45 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $109 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $50 −$2 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $46 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $41 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $63 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $44 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $19 −$1 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $100 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $19 $0 -2%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Dec 14 $7 $0 +1%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 24 $6 $0 +5%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 10 $6 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Jun 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Sadie Sink win the Tony for Best Leading Actress in a Play 2025? Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $6 $0 +4%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 4-8%? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu before June? May 29 $6 $0 +1%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? May 29 $7 −$1 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 28 $5 +$1 +27%
Will Trump say "Biden" this week? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $7 $0 +2%
Will Lithuania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $7 $0 +0%
Will Denmark finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 17 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? May 17 $13 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $1 $0 -8%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 27 $4 $0 +9%
Will Trump say "bigly" by March 28? Mar 25 $9 $0 +1%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.37-1.41ºC in March 2025? Mar 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 23 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $46 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $41 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $8 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 16¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $41 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $41 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $12 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.54 · official $44.54 (match) · 146 history records