Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:44:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x237f…7127 politics 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%16W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4
politics 22% −$3
other 20% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 7 -14.9% -23.0% 14% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 8 -12.8% -21.1% 25% 0% -10.1%
all 39 -7.2% -16.0% 41% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 0% -10.3%
10% -24.1% 0% -18.9%
15% -31.4% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses16 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage449d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $28 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $64 −$3 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $34 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? May 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 17 $9 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 15 $10 $0 -1%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 08 $19 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 06 $11 $0 +1%
Trump in Russia on Victory Day May 9? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? May 05 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will STAN win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 16 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Apr 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 2,000,000 or more people? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $15 $0 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 05 $11 $0 -2%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? Mar 28 $4 $0 +2%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? Mar 27 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $27 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $27 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 85¢ $27 15h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $28 17h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $28 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $4 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $5 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $3 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $15 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $31 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $34 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $34 28d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $1 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 72¢ $32 29d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 72¢ $34 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $9 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $7 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 30d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $9 357d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 100¢ $2 383d
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? BUY No 95¢ $9 397d
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $9 397d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.06 · official $28.82 (match) · 98 history records