Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:55:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x237b…c743 sports 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$216 (-6%) realized −$216 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$225
world 29% +$9
other 9% +$29
politics 2% +$8
tech 2% −$38
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.7% -11.1% 33% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.1% 50% 25% -10.8%
≤90d 16 -8.8% -17.5% 44% 25% -4.2%
all 65 -3.4% -12.6% 48% 43% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 43% -15.0%
10% -20.9% 35% -23.1%
15% -28.6% 31% -30.5%
20% -35.6% 29% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$37 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage140d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 16 $26 −$1 -4%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $46 −$3 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 30 $1 $0 +12%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 08 $87 −$71 -82%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 15 $78 −$17 -21%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $39 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $70 +$8 +11%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13? Apr 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Apr 12 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $628 +$29 +5%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $212 −$5 -2%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Mar 28 $101 $0 -0%
Bulls vs. 76ers Mar 26 $207 +$93 +45%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $102 +$98 +96%
Counter-Strike: NSN vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Asi Mar 22 $102 −$2 -2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 07 $200 −$200 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 07 $30 +$70 +233%
Mavericks vs. Celtics Mar 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Mar 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 17 $50 +$33 +67%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Peyton Stearns vs Qinwen Zheng Feb 16 $35 $0 +0%
Men's Group A - Switzerland vs. Czechia Feb 16 $30 +$37 +122%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-02-15? Feb 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-02-13? Feb 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $30 +$20 +67%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Feb 12 $68 −$68 -100%
Wizards vs. Cavaliers Feb 12 $90 +$10 +11%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 11 $34 −$34 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Feb 11 $24 +$14 +56%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $37 +$63 +170%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 10 $8 +$13 +163%
Pistons vs. Hornets Feb 10 $19 +$13 +70%
Kings vs. Pelicans Feb 09 $27 −$27 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Feb 09 $48 −$48 -100%
Bucks vs. Magic Feb 09 $23 −$23 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 09 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 09 $22 −$22 -100%
Heat vs. Wizards Feb 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Pacers vs. Raptors Feb 09 $77 +$23 +30%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 09 $26 +$74 +285%
Knicks vs. Celtics Feb 08 $44 −$44 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mario Bautista vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Bantamweight, M Feb 08 $37 +$28 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Rizvan Kuniev vs. Jailton Almeida (Heavyweight, Main Feb 08 $39 +$61 +156%
Rockets vs. Thunder Feb 08 $42 +$58 +138%
76ers vs. Suns Feb 08 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Feb 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $25 1h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $26 2h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 44¢ $43 19h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $38 25h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 46¢ $8 25h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 91¢ $46 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 87¢ $44 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 17d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $10 38d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $0 38d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $6 38d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $87 53d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? SELL No 29¢ $62 62d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $74 62d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $4 62d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? SELL Down 79¢ $40 63d
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 78¢ $39 63d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 39¢ $78 63d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 35¢ $70 63d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on April 13? BUY Down 78¢ $39 64d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 SELL No 25¢ $23 64d
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 20 BUY No 25¢ $23 64d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $126 69d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $108 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $110 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $110 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 20¢ $110 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $104 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $102 75d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records