Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2377…8700 other 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate34%17W / 33L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% +$4
politics 24% +$1
other 22% +$12
culture 10% $0
crypto 7% $0
sports 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.0% -10.5% 44% 11% -8.2%
≤30d 13 -8.3% -17.0% 31% 8% -8.7%
≤90d 13 -8.3% -17.0% 31% 8% -8.7%
all 50 -1.0% -10.4% 34% 8% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -8.0%
10% -19.0% 4% -16.8%
15% -26.8% 2% -24.8%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.32 per $1 lost it wins $5.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses17 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage301d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 94¢ 95¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $16 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $63 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $29 +$3 +11%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $19 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $2 $0 +14%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $10 $0 +2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $15 −$2 -15%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 31 $26 +$16 +61%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Pelicans Nov 24 $5 +$1 +24%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 19 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $34 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Sep 13 $3 $0 -15%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 08 $34 $0 +1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $34 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 02 $1 $0 -13%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in August? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 28 $37 $0 +0%
Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 28 $73 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Aug 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $36 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 27 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $2 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 5h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $35 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 22h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $17 28h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $16 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $23 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $31 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $24 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $29 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 20¢ $16 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $7 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.52 · official $31.30 (match) · 254 history records