Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2376…e94f weather 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,753 (-71%) realized −$3,742 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$269now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$1,131
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$3,514
weather 12% −$5
world 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 35 -21.7% -29.2% 54% 29% -83.8%
all 35 -21.7% -29.2% 54% 29% -83.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 29% -83.8%
10% -36.0% 23% -85.3%
15% -42.1% 11% -86.7%
20% -47.8% 6% -88.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$223 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$269
Realized−$3,742
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage74d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $280 $269 −$11 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 24 $1,209 −$1,131 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 3? May 03 $49 −$46 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 1? May 01 $51 −$48 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on May 1? May 01 $91 −$85 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 29 $2,374 −$1,918 -81%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 29 $11 −$7 -67%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 April 13-19? Apr 19 $344 −$275 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on April 8? Apr 08 $47 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 8? Apr 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on April 8? Apr 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 8? Apr 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 8? Apr 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 8? Apr 08 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 20°C on April 8? Apr 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on April 8? Apr 08 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C on April 8? Apr 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 8? Apr 08 $8 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 17°C on April 8? Apr 08 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 8? Apr 08 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 8? Apr 08 $17 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on April 8? Apr 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 7? Apr 07 $60 +$13 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$7 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$9 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 7? Apr 07 $130 −$5 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $20 −$9 -44%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on Ap Apr 07 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$2 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 +$4 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 7? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 7? Apr 07 $14 −$14 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $58 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 4h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $35 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $43 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $54 13d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $48 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $18 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $81 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $37 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $40 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $20 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $51 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $21 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL Yes 1¢ $33 17d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $55 18d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $29 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $7 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.95 · official $268.95 (match) · 169 history records