Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T09:43:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2375…691f
other · 378 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$720 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$391 · open +$242
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,152
Realized+$391
Unrealized+$242
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses212 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions17
Markets (closed)438 / 378
History coverage58d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day56.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%
Chart Positions 17 History 438 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,663
7 days−$4,431
14 days−$5,158
30 days−$4,074
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? No 55¢ 86¢ $353 $547 +$194 (+55%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? No 82¢ 81¢ $289 $288 −$2 (-1%)
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Yes 69¢ 97¢ $71 $100 +$29 (+41%)
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $84 $92 +$8 (+9%)
Will George Washington Markert be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado? No 82¢ 99¢ $64 $78 +$14 (+21%)
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election? No 95¢ 100¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+5%)
Will Christina Henderson win the 2026 Democratic D.C. Mayoral Primary? No 85¢ 100¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Warsh say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 93¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Robert MacIntyre finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? No 71¢ 73¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will "Michael Jackson: The Verdict" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? No 88¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will "The Witness" be the top global Netflix show this week? Yes 77¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 36¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? No 10¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? Yes 18¢ 35¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+95%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 81¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+22%)
Will Chuck Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will "Remarkably Bright Creatures" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? No 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? No 10¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? No 15¢ 0¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Western Conference? No 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? No 20¢ 0¢ $536 $0 −$536 (-100%)
Will "Nemesis" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? No 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Hottest" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21? No 44¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the Pacific Division? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Jun 13 $536 −$536 -100%
Will Jake Knapp finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National Invi Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Carlos Álvarez finish in first place in the first round of the 20 Jun 13 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 13 $0 +$89 +19371%
Will MrBeast say "Contestant" during his next video? Jun 13 $64 −$56 -87%
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs finish as the #1 seed in the 2025–2026 NBA Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" during his next video? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens make the NHL Playoffs? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "XO, Kitty Season 3" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $120 −$121 -101%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Will "Trust Me: The False Prophet" be the top US Netflix show this wee Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by March 31? Jun 13 $0 +$60 +152775%
Will Scottie Scheffler finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Jun 13 $37 −$38 -104%
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in first place in the first round of the 2 Jun 13 $41 −$39 -96%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the top glob Jun 13 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Aday Mara win the 2026 Outstanding Player of the tournament for t Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Will "28 Years Later: The Bone Temple" be the top US Netflix movie thi Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "ONE PIECE: Season 2" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sam Burns finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta National Invita Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 13 $1,344 −$1,344 -100%
Will the Philadelphia Flyers make the NHL Playoffs? Jun 13 $4 +$6 +172%
Will Leavitt say "China" during the next White House Press Briefing? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 13 $0 +$3 +522%
Will "Something Very Bad Is Going to Happen: Season 1" be the #2 globa Jun 13 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in first place in the first round of th Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump say "NATO" during Monday news conference? Jun 13 $3 −$4 -118%
Will Alfonso López Chau finish in second place in the first round of t Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will J.J. Spaun win the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Affirm Holdings (AFRM) be added to the S&P 500 by March 31, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Maverick McNealy finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will "XO, Kitty: Season 3" be the top global Netflix show this week? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kristoffer Reitan finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta Nation Jun 13 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump say "Oil" during executive order signing today? Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Trump say "China" during executive order signing today? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Xander Schauffele finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Augusta Nationa Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the 2026 Men's NCAA basketball National Champion come from the Bi Jun 13 $24 −$30 -127%
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Jun 13 $95 −$107 -112%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Jun 13 $235 −$235 -100%
Will Sung-Jae Im finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Augusta National Inv Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Leavitt say "Ceasefire" during the next White House press briefin Jun 13 $78 −$77 -99%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in first place in the first round of t Jun 13 $1 −$60 -6444%
Will Jordan Spieth finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Si Woo Kim finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 Valero Texas Open? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 Augusta National In Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Will President Trump sign 1 piece of legislation into law in March? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% −$6,103
politics 32% +$10,029
sports 8% +$1,720
world 3% −$416
culture 2% −$56
crypto 2% +$80
tech 1% −$209
economics 1% +$300
finance 0% +$55
weather 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 1h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 3h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 3h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $13 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will "Sweet Magnolias: Season 5" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? BUY No 93¢ $5 8h
Will Starmer say "Defense" during the next PMQ? BUY No 10¢ $1 8h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 RBC Canadian Op BUY Yes 36¢ $2 9h
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -22.1% -29.5% 17% 13% -55.6%
≤30d 281 +7.4% -2.9% 42% 29% -16.5%
≤90d 438 +19.7% +8.3% 48% 34% -8.0%
all 438 +19.7% +8.3% 48% 34% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover56.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.3% 34% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -2.1% 25% -16.8%
15% -11.6% 19% -24.9%
20% -20.2% 14% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,152.33 · official $1,152.24 (match) · 3500 history records