Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:38:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x236b…e782 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%15W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$14
world 35% −$4
politics 7% +$1
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
finance 4% $0
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -1.1% -10.5% 25% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 10 -1.5% -10.9% 30% 0% -10.7%
all 35 -5.4% -14.4% 43% 3% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 3% -11.9%
10% -22.6% 0% -20.3%
15% -30.1% 0% -28.0%
20% -36.9% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses15 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $29 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $19 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $32 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $32 −$3 -10%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 20 $32 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $13 −$1 -7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? May 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? May 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 43.0% on May 2? May 05 $16 $0 +1%
Will another coalition form the next German Government? Apr 30 $1 $0 -14%
Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? Apr 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 29 $14 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president? Apr 29 $2 $0 +20%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by 6-9%? Apr 28 $14 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 29 $16 $0 -1%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross more than 7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $16 +$1 +10%
Duterte released from custody by Friday? Mar 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 11 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $29 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $32 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $32 27h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $12 24d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $29 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $29 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $29 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $19 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $19 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $26 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $6 25d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $32 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 82¢ $29 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 91¢ $32 26d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $23 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $9 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $32 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 84¢ $3 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 84¢ $29 29d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 83¢ $32 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 57¢ $13 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 30d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $33 31d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 361d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 361d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 390d
Will Robert Francis Prevost be the next pope? BUY No 98¢ $16 406d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $16 406d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.28 · official $29.28 (match) · 87 history records