Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2369…371c politics 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%1W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 52% −$2
other 19% $0
crypto 10% $0
sports 5% $0
tech 5% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 21 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses1 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage116d
Avg bet$85
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 25 $83 $0 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $84 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $84 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $84 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 16 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 13 $84 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $84 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $85 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 12 $85 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $85 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Mar 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $85 $0 +0%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $86 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 01 $86 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $82 1h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $83 15h
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $83 5d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $84 17d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $84 17d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $84 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $19 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $56 18d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 28d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 29d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 37d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 37d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $84 39d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $84 40d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $84 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $84 43d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $84 45d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $37 45d
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $47 45d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $84 48d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $84 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $85 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records