Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:45:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2369…5174 other 142 markets active 0h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,734 (+1%) realized +$1,734 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate22%31W / 110L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,308per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$5
14 days−$39
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$22
politics 35% −$78
sports 17% +$1,831
world 4% −$3
culture 3% −$8
tech 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% −$31
finance 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -5.5% -14.5% 12% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 93 -11.0% -19.4% 5% 2% -8.7%
all 141 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 7% -8.7%
10% -20.3% 7% -17.4%
15% -28.0% 7% -25.4%
20% -35.0% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,624) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$7 · ×11.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized+$1,734
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses31 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage132d
Avg bet$1,308
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $629 $628 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,087 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $952 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,096 −$4 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $342 +$2 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $1,137 −$2 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $3,539 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,505 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $870 −$1 -0%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 06 $85 −$85 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $58 +$66 +114%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,016 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $3,376 −$4 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,082 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $257 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $486 $0 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $917 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $1,245 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $1,707 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $907 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $849 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 20 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $4,010 −$4 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 09 $3,248 −$4 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $2,593 −$3 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,641 −$3 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 09 $1,350 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,240 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,572 −$3 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 07 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,335 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $3,976 −$5 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,262 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 14m
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $356 1h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $357 4h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,085 43h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $780 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $951 46h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 46h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $952 2d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,026 3d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,027 3d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $342 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,137 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $862 7d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $837 8d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $839 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $875 8d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $876 8d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $858 10d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $859 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 10d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $869 11d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $870 11d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $58 13d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $85 14d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,015 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.25 · official $628.25 (match) · 433 history records