Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:46:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x2366…580f sports 238 markets active 0h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$545 (-2%) realized −$548 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%121W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$332est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,299
7 days−$1,299
14 days−$1,299
30 days−$519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$556
weather 10% −$478
other 7% +$759
crypto 3% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -69.8% -72.7% 12% 12% -74.6%
≤30d 27 -16.7% -24.6% 44% 41% -25.5%
≤90d 192 -6.3% -15.2% 51% 47% -10.0%
all 236 -8.2% -16.9% 51% 47% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 47% -11.3%
10% -24.9% 43% -19.8%
15% -32.1% 36% -27.6%
20% -38.8% 29% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$99 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$548
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses121 / 115
Est. fees paid−$332
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 238
History coverage212d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Spirit 65¢ 66¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $135 +$32 +24%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $190 $0 -0%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $52 +$99 +190%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In Jun 19 $90 −$90 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 19 $81 −$81 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Jun 19 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $84 −$84 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5 Jun 19 $144 −$144 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-3.5) Jun 19 $108 −$108 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 19 $180 −$180 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $60 +$37 +62%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5 May 29 $110 +$90 +82%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 26 $110 +$1 +0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 216.5 May 26 $110 +$90 +82%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 24 $120 +$80 +67%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $110 +$90 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $92 +$108 +117%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) May 22 $204 +$94 +46%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 21 $84 +$116 +138%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) May 21 $125 +$75 +60%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $104 +$96 +92%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 19 $114 +$86 +75%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $98 +$102 +104%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $60 −$32 -54%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $88 −$88 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 12 $162 −$162 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5 May 12 $149 −$14 -10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $54 −$38 -71%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $106 +$94 +89%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5 May 08 $110 +$90 +82%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 08 $100 +$100 +100%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 07 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 07 $180 −$180 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) May 07 $128 +$58 +45%
LoL: Gen.G vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 30 $50 −$35 -71%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $110 +$90 +82%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $131 −$131 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $117 −$112 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $130 1m
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $119 1h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 30¢ $90 2h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $129 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $61 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $120 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $4 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $2 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $1 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 38¢ $61 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 85¢ $85 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 66¢ $66 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $26 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 26¢ $26 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 45¢ $0 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL T1 Academy 49¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff SELL KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $39 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $22 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $1 4h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 35¢ $7 4h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic BUY 51¢ $101 11h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $66 19d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $114 19d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 21d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $85 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.00 · official $131.00 · 939 history records