Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:11:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2363…fc75 crypto 1261 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,151 (+2%) realized +$3,148 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate79%1201W / 316L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,472
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -78.7% -80.7% 20% 2% -40.2%
≤30d 595 -41.4% -47.0% 55% 5% -17.6%
≤90d 1309 -18.1% -25.9% 77% 9% -11.8%
all 1517 -15.7% -23.7% 79% 12% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 12% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 0% -19.9%
15% -37.7% 0% -27.6%
20% -43.8% 0% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$63 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$3,148
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses1201 / 316
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1517 / 1261
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$147
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Up 97¢ 100¢ $97 $100 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 299 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 5AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 8PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 19, 12PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 1AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 9PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 6PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$259 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 7PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 5PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 6AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 11PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 8PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 2PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$3 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$75 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 11AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 2AM ET Jun 17 $37 −$75 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 4AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 9PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 11PM ET Jun 17 $41 −$82 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 3AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 8PM ET Jun 17 $129 −$258 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 12PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 2AM ET Jun 17 $128 −$255 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 8PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 8PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 17 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 6PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 2PM ET Jun 17 $36 −$72 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 12PM ET Jun 17 $85 −$170 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 11AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8PM ET Jun 17 $83 −$166 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 1AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 29, 9PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 1PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 22, 2AM ET Jun 17 $144 −$144 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 2, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 7, 5AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 2PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$2 -200%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 14, 5PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$5 -200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $97 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $88 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $94 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $160 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $18 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $53 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $14 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $133 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $163 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $99 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $66 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $167 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $168 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $152 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $173 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $173 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $172 31h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $172 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.95 · official $99.95 (match) · 3500 history records