Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:08:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

23 0x2363…ed78 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$14 (-12%) realized −$10 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip

Net edge-53%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day4.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-51.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-45.9%	-51.0%	50%	0%	-10.9%
≤30d	2	-45.9%	-51.0%	50%	0%	-10.9%
≤90d	2	-45.9%	-51.0%	50%	0%	-10.9%
all	2	-45.9%	-51.0%	50%	0%	-10.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-51.0%	0%	-10.9%
10%	-55.7%	0%	-19.4%
15%	-60.0%	0%	-27.2%
20%	-63.9%	0%	-34.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -46% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.83 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$95

Realized−$10

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day4.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska	Martina Capurro Taborda	99¢	95¢	$99	$95	−$4 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
ITF Milano: Viktor Durasovic vs Giuseppe La Vela	Jun 18	$20	+$2	+8%
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi	Jun 18	$2	−$2	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
ITF Bolszewo: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Barbara Straszewska	BUY Martina Capurro Taborda	99¢	$99	1h
ITF Milano: Viktor Durasovic vs Giuseppe La Vela	SELL Giuseppe La Vela	100¢	$22	1h
ITF Milano: Viktor Durasovic vs Giuseppe La Vela	BUY Giuseppe La Vela	92¢	$20	2h
ITF Haskovo: Berfu Cengiz vs Elena Korokozidi	BUY Elena Korokozidi	20¢	$2	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.32 · official $95.32 (match) · 4 history records