Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:20:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x2363…b0e8 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$150 (-1%) realized −$150 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%131W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$82est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$23
14 days−$63
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$728
sports 39% +$665
crypto 1% −$68
world 1% −$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.2% -31.4% 50% 25% -28.4%
≤30d 24 +0.1% -9.4% 62% 42% -13.8%
≤90d 218 +1.5% -8.1% 56% 53% -10.5%
all 234 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 53% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 53% -9.9%
10% -16.5% 50% -18.5%
15% -24.5% 47% -26.4%
20% -31.9% 39% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$114 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$150
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses131 / 103
Est. fees paid−$82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage100d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$34 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 07 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $26 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 07 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 06 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$1 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $41 −$41 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 03 $41 +$67 +165%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $33 +$21 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $41 +$64 +158%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $44 −$43 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $45 +$58 +129%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $98 −$96 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $118 −$115 -98%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $83 −$82 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $81 +$42 +52%
Canadiens vs. Lightning May 04 $81 +$114 +140%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $82 +$60 +73%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace vs. Toulouse FC end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw? May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $81 −$80 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $87 −$86 -99%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 +$59 +73%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $90 +$63 +70%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $90 +$78 +86%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $81 −$80 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $86 −$84 -99%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 02 $81 +$73 +90%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 01 $91 +$42 +46%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $91 +$64 +70%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $79 +$90 +114%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $87 +$91 +105%
Will SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 30 $51 −$50 -98%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $69 +$97 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $15 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $30 29h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $29 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $31 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $24 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $28 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $27 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $29 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 8d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 78¢ $81 10d
Will Poland win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 12d
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 12d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 12d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $41 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 61¢ $33 14d
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 100¢ $105 14d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-01? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.66 · official $14.66 (match) · 375 history records