Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T04:45:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x235f…9225
sports · 10 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
−$81 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$99 · open +$18
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$118
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage124d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 36¢ 42¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner EDward Gaming 69¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Heat Heat 48¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 +$10 +325%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Feb 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Jazz vs. Heat Feb 10 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026 Feb 10 $23 −$1 -3%
Qatar Total Open: Emma Raducanu vs Camila Osorio Feb 10 $77 −$77 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Valentin Royer vs Christopher O'Connell Feb 09 $38 −$14 -38%
Rotterdam Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Ugo Humbert Feb 09 $61 +$16 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026? Feb 09 $49 +$12 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 56% −$113
crypto 26% +$18
other 18% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +216.9% +186.7% 100% 100% +200.8%
≤30d 2 +216.9% +186.7% 100% 100% +200.8%
≤90d 2 +216.9% +186.7% 100% 100% +200.8%
all 9 +15.9% +4.9% 44% 44% -39.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 44% -39.3%
10% -5.1% 44% -45.1%
15% -14.3% 22% -50.4%
20% -22.7% 22% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.06 · official $118.06 (match) · 17 history records