Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x235e…5673 sports 401 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 88d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$26,331 (-17%) realized −$25,737 · open −$594
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%130W / 220L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$1,444est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$17,903now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$24,872
other 26% +$1,859
world 16% −$7,627
crypto 9% −$7,250
politics 6% +$2,288
economics 3% +$92
tech 1% −$89
finance 1% −$435
culture 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +78.6% +61.6% 59% 59% +86.1%
≤30d 70 +34.6% +21.8% 46% 44% +28.7%
≤90d 350 -2.1% -11.4% 37% 37% +1.8%
all 350 -2.1% -11.4% 37% 37% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 37% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 35% -8.0%
15% -27.6% 35% -16.9%
20% -34.7% 32% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -21% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$511 vs −$237 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$17,903
Realized−$25,737
Unrealized−$594
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses130 / 220
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1,444
Open positions35
Markets (closed)350 / 401
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$395
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 56¢ $3,234 $2,803 −$431 (-13%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $2,479 $2,444 −$35 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $1,760 $1,785 +$25 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $1,380 $1,215 −$165 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $821 $952 +$131 (+16%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 42¢ 46¢ $847 $944 +$96 (+11%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers New York Yankees 29¢ 78¢ $348 $930 +$582 (+167%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 33¢ 80¢ $330 $795 +$465 (+141%)
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $948 $780 −$168 (-18%)
Will Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 National League Championship Series? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $744 $773 +$29 (+4%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $1,132 $648 −$484 (-43%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $699 $639 −$60 (-9%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $600 $575 −$25 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 59¢ 51¢ $400 $346 −$54 (-13%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 23¢ 59¢ $121 $313 +$192 (+160%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $178 $293 +$115 (+65%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $290 $291 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $330 $261 −$69 (-21%)
Will OpenAI announce a phone in 2026? Yes 26¢ 12¢ $533 $260 −$274 (-51%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 30¢ 20¢ $255 $174 −$81 (-32%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 55¢ 99¢ $96 $172 +$76 (+80%)
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? No 29¢ 42¢ $85 $123 +$38 (+45%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $69 $80 +$10 (+15%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $84 $79 −$5 (-6%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $115 $71 −$44 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.2T and $1.4T at market close on Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.4T and $1.6T at market close on Jun 24 $9 −$9 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $2,375 +$373 +16%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $736 +$264 +36%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND W Jun 23 $820 +$4,481 +546%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $337 −$330 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,023 +$3,041 +297%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $510 +$1,153 +226%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? AND Brazil t Jun 20 $303 +$129 +43%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $487 −$480 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $204 +$485 +238%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $846 +$594 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- Jun 18 $204 +$396 +194%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $1,038 −$1,012 -98%
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%? Jun 17 $766 +$147 +19%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $186 −$182 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $245 −$240 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $235 −$232 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will France win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $512 +$2,119 +414%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,030 +$1,986 +98%
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $307 +$1,332 +433%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $754 −$740 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $239 −$235 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $315 −$308 -98%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $1,442 +$951 +66%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $296 +$704 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $225 +$601 +267%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $653 −$640 -98%
Brescia: Kathinka von Deichmann vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 15 $285 +$215 +75%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 15 $572 −$560 -98%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $551 −$550 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $508 −$500 -98%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $3,097 +$3,869 +125%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco Jun 15 $51 +$643 +1251%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2,986 −$2,664 -89%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,274 −$1,149 -90%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $3,616 −$3,402 -94%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $387 −$380 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $515 −$511 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,502 +$19,968 +570%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $188 +$236 +125%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $208 −$205 -98%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $454 +$232 +51%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $7,325 −$322 -4%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 10 $712 +$445 +62%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $8,923 +$509 +6%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $304 +$296 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $113 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $87 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $14 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $98 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 29¢ $32 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $612 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 56¢ $553 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06 BUY 24¢ $511 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $2,748 10h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 AND W BUY 32¢ $510 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 29¢ $306 11h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $592 14h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $592 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 33¢ $337 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 AND France lea BUY 41¢ $509 34h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Wil BUY 15¢ $820 42h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND W BUY 15¢ $820 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 9¢ $1,027 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 1.5 AND S BUY 46¢ $508 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY 25¢ $1,023 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 30¢ $510 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $487 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Brazil leading at halftime? AND Brazil t BUY 69¢ $303 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $846 4d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 4d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,902.69 · official $18,703.75 · 3500 history records