Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x235c…e30b other 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%25W / 168L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 29% −$5
sports 27% −$2
other 21% −$4
crypto 8% −$3
economics 5% −$1
world 5% −$2
culture 3% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.0% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 86 -0.3% -9.8% 16% 0% -9.7%
all 193 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses25 / 168
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)193 / 193
History coverage168d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 193 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 21 $26 $0 -1%
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $343 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $111 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 02 $33 −$1 -3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 02 $67 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 01 $39 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $28 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 30 $31 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $100 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $154 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $64 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $120 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 27 $112 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 20 $38 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $186 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 15 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $28 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $171 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $141 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 13 $28 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $129 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $41 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $76 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 97¢ $25 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $26 5h
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $14 13d
Will Argentina score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $14 13d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $34 21d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $34 21d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $32 34d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $32 34d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $37 50d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $37 50d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 88¢ $32 50d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 50d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $29 50d
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $29 51d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $36 51d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $36 51d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $30 51d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $30 51d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 97¢ $39 51d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 97¢ $39 51d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $26 51d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $26 51d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 51d
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 52d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 92¢ $30 52d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 93¢ $31 52d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $30 52d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $30 52d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $28 54d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $28 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 738 history records