Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:05:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
23 0x235b…5996 other 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$137 (+52%) realized +$129 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$82
7 days+$82
14 days+$82
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% +$87
sports 33% +$29
other 17% +$17
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +66.8% +50.9% 100% 100% +55.4%
≤30d 2 +66.8% +50.9% 100% 100% +55.4%
≤90d 6 +48.4% +34.3% 67% 67% +45.0%
all 11 +23.2% +11.4% 55% 55% +42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.4% 55% +42.1%
10% +0.8% 55% +28.5%
15% -9.0% 55% +16.1%
20% -17.9% 45% +4.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$3 · ×7.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.29 per $1 lost it wins $9.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)11 / 22
History coverage138d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 32¢ 59¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+84%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+82%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 76¢ 86¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? No 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 21¢ 25¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 76¢ 80¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 33¢ 14¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-59%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $110 +$80 +72%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $4 +$2 +61%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $74 +$30 +40%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $5 +$16 +317%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Feb 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $7 +$7 +94%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $3 +$5 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $189 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $6 26h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 56¢ $103 31d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 35d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 44¢ $5 43d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 62d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 74d
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 76¢ $7 80d
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 80d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 82d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 94d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 13¢ $1 102d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY No 4¢ $1 119d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 121d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 124d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 124d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 129d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 132d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? SELL No 100¢ $8 132d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 61¢ $4 133d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 133d
Will Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 133d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY No 37¢ $3 133d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-10? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 133d
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 133d
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026 BUY No 73¢ $5 134d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 76¢ $4 136d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 136d
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 41¢ $5 136d
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.14 · official $54.13 (match) · 181 history records