Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x2355…4869 sports 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$213 (+8%) realized +$420 · open −$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%17W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$221now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days+$237
14 days+$111
30 days+$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$34
other 22% +$61
crypto 3% −$72
tech 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.3% -8.4% 50% 50% +11.4%
≤30d 37 -12.9% -21.2% 43% 43% +5.6%
≤90d 40 -19.5% -27.1% 40% 40% +3.3%
all 48 -23.4% -30.7% 35% 35% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 35% +0.5%
10% -37.4% 33% -9.1%
15% -43.4% 31% -17.9%
20% -49.0% 25% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$20 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$221
Realized+$420
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses17 / 31
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions8
Markets (closed)48 / 62
History coverage140d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 19¢ $51 $85 +$33 (+65%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $61 $81 +$20 (+34%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Yellow Submarine 65¢ 1¢ $98 $2 −$96 (-98%)
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Natus Vincere 72¢ 0¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $34 −$33 -98%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner Jun 27 $29 +$63 +221%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $129 +$73 +57%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $34 −$33 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $45 +$20 +45%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $26 +$33 +130%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $78 +$34 +43%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $34 +$51 +152%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $164 +$50 +30%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $146 +$18 +12%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $99 +$47 +48%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $95 −$2 -3%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$19 +189%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $128 −$86 -67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Puck be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $68 −$68 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $142 +$120 +84%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $37 −$36 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Batrider be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $30 +$32 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $61 +$33 +55%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $15 +$26 +170%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $15 +$15 +97%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 03 $148 +$127 +86%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 16 $53 −$53 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Feb 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Team Liquid win Blast Slam VI? Feb 15 $29 +$79 +271%
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Feb 13 $37 −$7 -18%
Will Team Falcons win Blast Slam VI? Feb 13 $17 −$2 -9%
Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by Februa Feb 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 65¢ $99 51m
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 72¢ $159 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 18¢ $34 2h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $92 3h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI - Game 1 Winner BUY HULIGANI 30¢ $29 4h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Corners AND Will Uruguay win on 202 BUY 62¢ $76 19h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 63¢ $129 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl BUY Team Bald 32¢ $34 21h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 98¢ $18 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 97¢ $47 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 66¢ $44 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Power Rangers 61¢ $1 22h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 60¢ $1 22h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL MODUS 78¢ $59 24h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY MODUS 33¢ $26 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $111 25h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 69¢ $78 26h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $85 26h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $34 27h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 38h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 38h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $214 38h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $164 45h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $164 45h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY TEAM VISION 89¢ $146 45h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner SELL TEAM VISION 100¢ $146 46h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winner BUY TEAM VISION 67¢ $99 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $98 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.13 · official $220.75 (match) · 134 history records