Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:39:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2355…e63c other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$85 (-9%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%23W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$88
weather 15% +$1
sports 6% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +19.0% +7.7% 73% 55% -5.9%
≤30d 11 +19.0% +7.7% 73% 55% -5.9%
≤90d 27 -3.5% -12.7% 59% 30% -19.6%
all 42 -5.9% -14.9% 55% 36% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 36% -17.9%
10% -23.0% 19% -25.8%
15% -30.5% 19% -32.9%
20% -37.3% 19% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses23 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage93d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +58%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 −$3 -64%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 $0 +21%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $3 +$7 +223%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +126%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $254 −$16 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $119 +$11 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $107 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 19? Mar 19 $99 +$8 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 19? Mar 19 $11 −$6 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 19? Mar 19 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 16 to March 18, 2026? Mar 18 $30 +$5 +16%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Mar 17 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 17? Mar 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $25 +$5 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 17 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 17? Mar 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 14 to March 16, 2026? Mar 17 $10 +$6 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16? Mar 16 $5 +$1 +19%
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will SV Werder Bremen vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-15? Mar 15 $2 +$3 +135%
Melbourne Victory FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to Score Mar 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5 Mar 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $4 −$3 -66%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $3 +$2 +58%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-14? Mar 14 $1 $0 -17%
Girona FC vs. Athletic Club: Both Teams to Score Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL No 23¢ $2 5h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY No 62¢ $5 6h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 36¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 29h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 30h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Qat BUY 20¢ $5 36h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 30¢ $3 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $2 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $1 3d
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $104 86d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $104 86d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $103 86d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $103 86d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $101 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records