Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:27:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2353…45ea sports 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 279d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,926 (-25%) realized −$2,728 · open −$198
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%45W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$764
other 29% −$1,591
crypto 4% −$336
economics 3% −$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-31.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.6% -5.4% 40% 35% -8.5%
≤30d 20 +4.6% -5.4% 40% 35% -8.5%
≤90d 21 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 33% -11.4%
all 148 -24.8% -31.9% 30% 28% -32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.9% 28% -32.5%
10% -38.4% 28% -38.9%
15% -44.4% 28% -44.8%
20% -49.8% 26% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$68 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

279d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$2,728
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses45 / 103
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage279d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $292 $94 −$198 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $101 −$2 -2%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $74 −$73 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $68 +$157 +232%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $49 +$5 +10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 +$165 +344%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $58 −$1 -1%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $103 +$55 +54%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $101 −$50 -49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $105 +$105 +101%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$154 +154%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 −$99 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$45 +91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $104 −$102 -99%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$54 +109%
Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - CCT South Amer Apr 17 $48 −$47 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs OG (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 15 $61 −$61 -100%
Counter-Strike: HyperSpirit vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Mar 15 $104 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 15 $40 +$18 +46%
Valorant: FOKUS vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Group Omega Feb 22 $40 +$43 +108%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-01-22? Jan 22 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs fnatic (BO3) Jan 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs MASONIC (BO3) Jan 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs OG (BO3) Jan 13 $70 −$19 -27%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Paris FC end in a draw? Jan 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-01-12? Jan 12 $120 −$60 -50%
Adelaide International: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Sebastian Korda Jan 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Marsborne (BO3) Jan 12 $39 +$42 +109%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $50 +$139 +277%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Jan 11 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $65 −$12 -18%
Valorant: Galatasaray Esports vs FUT Academy (BO3) Jan 11 $38 +$33 +86%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. AC Milan end in a draw? Jan 11 $20 +$44 +220%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Jan 11 $90 −$27 -30%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-11-27? Jan 11 $59 −$49 -83%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Jan 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: SkinRave vs Phoenix (BO3) Jan 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Brute vs Washington (BO3) Jan 11 $93 −$51 -54%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs HyperSpirit (BO3) Jan 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Nigeria vs. Mozambique: Both Teams to Score Jan 11 $45 −$45 -100%
Raptors vs. Celtics Jan 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. Livingston FC: O/U 2.5 Jan 11 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-09-26? Jan 11 $24 −$24 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 59¢ $99 34m
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 59¢ $101 53m
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $50 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $74 14h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $224 19h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $68 20h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag SELL Division One 61¢ $54 38h
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag BUY Division One 54¢ $49 39h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes $51 39h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $213 39h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $48 41h
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division BUY AaB Bulls 37¢ $51 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $58 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $57 42h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $58 43h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 92¢ $157 2d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 59¢ $103 2d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 49¢ $51 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL ex-RUBY 48¢ $45 3d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY ex-RUBY 53¢ $51 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $210 3d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $105 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $254 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $100 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $95 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 80¢ $95 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $50 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $100 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 51¢ $104 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.77 · official $93.77 (match) · 313 history records