Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2352…1d44 sports 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$150 (-29%) realized −$155 · open +$5
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%4W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$12
14 days−$21
30 days−$173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$75
sports 38% −$80
tech 20% −$13
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.5% -6.4% 40% 20% -18.6%
≤30d 44 -22.5% -29.8% 9% 7% -43.3%
≤90d 45 -22.3% -29.7% 9% 7% -43.3%
all 45 -22.3% -29.7% 9% 7% -43.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 7% -43.3%
10% -36.4% 7% -48.7%
15% -42.6% 7% -53.6%
20% -48.2% 7% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 82% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$155
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses4 / 41
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions4
Markets (closed)45 / 49
History coverage40d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? No 71¢ 92¢ $14 $19 +$4 (+30%)
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 73¢ 79¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+8%)
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+10%)
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $61 −$4 -7%
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 18 $39 −$9 -22%
Giorgian De Arrascaeta: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $7 +$10 +146%
Giorgian De Arrascaeta: 1+ shots Jun 15 $9 −$9 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent - Completed match? Jun 10 $2 +$8 +414%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) Jun 09 $4 −$1 -15%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $3 $0 -4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 09 $3 $0 -2%
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball Jun 09 $2 $0 -10%
Spread: Paris Basketball (-8.5) Jun 09 $3 $0 -9%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Game 5: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 08 $3 $0 -3%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $2 +$4 +172%
Game 5: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? Jun 08 $62 −$1 -2%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 07 $8 −$8 -99%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $5 −$2 -39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $4 $0 -5%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 02 $3 $0 -7%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 02 $2 $0 -17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 -35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 02 $1 $0 -43%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 02 $4 $0 -5%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $5 $0 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $9 $0 -4%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 02 $6 $0 -7%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $10 −$1 -8%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 02 $4 −$1 -30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $11 −$1 -7%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 02 $4 −$2 -54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $24 −$4 -16%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 02 $24 −$17 -70%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 -14%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca May 29 $1 $0 -20%
Will CD Los Chankas vs. CU Técnica de Cajamarca end in a draw? May 29 $3 $0 -12%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 May 29 $43 −$41 -95%
Game 3: Any Player Quadra Kill? May 29 $2 −$2 -83%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay a Dragon? May 29 $42 −$41 -98%
Game 1: Any Player Penta Kill? May 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Game 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? May 29 $3 −$3 -99%
Spread: Cabo Verde (-1.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-2.5) May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 09 $2 $0 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? SELL No 55¢ $56 1h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $31 1h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027? BUY Yes 12¢ $39 1h
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $61 1h
Cap FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 19h
Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY No 71¢ $15 19h
Tuyo FDV above $80M one day after launch? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 21h
Tuyo FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 73¢ $15 21h
Giorgian De Arrascaeta: 1+ shots BUY Yes 54¢ $9 3d
Giorgian De Arrascaeta: 1+ shots on target BUY No 40¢ $7 3d
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Monte (-3.5) vs paiN (+3.5) BUY paiN 59¢ $4 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 8d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $3 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $3 8d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 9d
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 51¢ $3 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $3 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 9d
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball SELL Cholet 30¢ $1 9d
Spread: Paris Basketball (-8.5) SELL Cholet 57¢ $3 9d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 11¢ $3 9d
Spread: Paris Basketball (-8.5) BUY Cholet 61¢ $3 9d
Cholet vs. Paris Basketball BUY Cholet 32¢ $2 9d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Kent 58¢ $8 10d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent - Completed match? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 10d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 SELL Over 3.5 60¢ $3 14d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Under 3.5 40¢ $2 14d
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 BUY Over 3.5 61¢ $3 14d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 70¢ $4 16d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Panama 45¢ $2 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.13 · official $53.14 (match) · 174 history records