Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:43:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2352…e5a8 other 38 markets active 4h ago coverage 325d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%13W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$1
other 27% −$4
politics 24% +$1
tech 7% $0
sports 5% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -13.7%
≤30d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 18% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 11 -2.3% -11.6% 18% 0% -10.2%
all 37 -0.6% -10.1% 35% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

325d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses13 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage325d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $37 $38 +$2 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $17 −$1 -5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $92 +$3 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 23 $35 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $52 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $37 −$2 -5%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 17 $0 $0 -1%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 455–469 times August 8–August 15? Aug 11 $48 −$3 -6%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will a dozen eggs be between $4.00-4.25 in July? Aug 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Aug 11 $41 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3800 on August 11? Aug 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 10 $44 $0 -0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Aug 10 $62 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on August Aug 02 $1 $0 +12%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Jul 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Jul 31 $56 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 31 $7 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 31 $63 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 30 $62 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jul 30 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $58 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 29 $7 $0 -1%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 29 $63 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $37 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $11 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $6 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 42h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $17 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $42 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $12 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 90¢ $26 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 86¢ $36 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $33 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $33 24d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 29¢ $8 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $12 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $22 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 93¢ $13 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $2 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $33 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 77¢ $32 25d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $31 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 72¢ $35 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.48 · official $38.48 (match) · 118 history records