Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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23 0x2350…570e sports 831 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 222d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$841 (+0%) realized +$851 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate67%539W / 267L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$531est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$501now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,953
7 days−$1,759
14 days−$2,274
30 days−$2,965
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$1,702
other 16% +$2,376
politics 1% +$49
crypto 0% −$57
finance 0% +$2
world 0% −$136
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +45.4% +31.6% 63% 25% -19.3%
≤30d 207 +6.8% -3.4% 65% 18% -13.1%
≤90d 691 -8.4% -17.1% 64% 19% -11.9%
all 806 -1.2% -10.6% 67% 22% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 22% -9.2%
10% -19.2% 13% -17.9%
15% -27.0% 9% -25.8%
20% -34.2% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$49 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$501
Realized+$851
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses539 / 267
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$531
Open positions24
Markets (closed)806 / 831
History coverage222d ⚠
Avg bet$395
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan India 91¢ 91¢ $301 $300 −$1 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-17%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+91%)
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026? No 86¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 72¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Yes 12¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 93¢ 92¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Yes 83¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 70 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$37 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 +$48 +47%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $26 −$10 -38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 −$2 -2%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $42 +$7 +17%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $1,901 −$1,901 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $133 −$131 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 −$15 -30%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $301 −$31 -10%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 $0 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $801 +$46 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $77 +$20 +26%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $1 $0 +0%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $201 −$53 -26%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $501 +$42 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $1,104 +$29 +3%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 $0 +1%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $301 +$22 +7%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $600 +$12 +2%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $101 +$28 +27%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $1,187 +$26 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $301 +$22 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $300 +$15 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 −$50 -25%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$2 -22%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $1,001 +$3 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$17 +17%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +23%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $6 −$4 -71%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$15 -73%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$23 -56%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $20 +$64 +312%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,004 +$5 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 +$45 +111%
WIll Lamine Yamal play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $48 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$9 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $200 −$40 -20%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 −$37 -37%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 93¢ $200 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 90¢ $1 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $100 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 61¢ $10 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 91¢ $149 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 38¢ $6 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 42¢ $1 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 37¢ $5 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland SELL Ireland 24¢ $10 16h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland BUY Ireland 24¢ $10 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 81¢ $98 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 82¢ $101 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 20h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 100¢ $1 22h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 45¢ $48 23h
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 37¢ $41 24h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 28h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 24¢ $42 36h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 92¢ $33 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 37h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 99¢ $900 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1,001 38h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland BUY Scotland 67¢ $71 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 55¢ $35 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 84¢ $270 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $100 38h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.39 · official $501.26 (match) · 3500 history records