Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2350…d717
other · 6 markets active 1h ago
2.5score
−$9 -19%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$15
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%
Chart Positions 3 History 3 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 13 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 40% +$1
other 38% $0
sports 22% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 1h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 87¢ $19 8h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 81¢ $19 10d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 67¢ $2 11d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -48.0% -53.0% 50% 0% -38.7%
≤30d 3 -27.0% -34.0% 67% 33% -35.8%
≤90d 3 -27.0% -34.0% 67% 33% -35.8%
all 3 -27.0% -34.0% 67% 33% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.0% 33% -35.8%
10% -40.3% 0% -42.0%
15% -46.1% 0% -47.6%
20% -51.4% 0% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.55 · official $14.55 (match) · 9 history records