Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x234f…2190 crypto 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34 (-11%) realized −$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day56.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -12.8% -21.1% 37% 29% -25.8%
≤30d 41 -12.8% -21.1% 37% 29% -25.8%
≤90d 41 -12.8% -21.1% 37% 29% -25.8%
all 41 -12.8% -21.1% 37% 29% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.1% 29% -25.8%
10% ← realistic here -28.6% 27% -32.9%
15% -35.5% 22% -39.4%
20% -41.9% 20% -45.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day56.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $46 −$37 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$55 +522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$3 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$5 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$4 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$13 +607%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$7 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $11 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records