Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:24:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x234e…15cb
sports · 25 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$14 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 25
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 2 History 20 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 11¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra Jun 14 $1 $0 -41%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$3 +152%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4 −$3 -73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +212%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 12 $9 −$4 -43%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $1 −$1 -62%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -59%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 51% +$3
politics 30% −$8
other 14% −$7
crypto 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $2 1h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra SELL Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gra BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY 19¢ $1 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL 29¢ $2 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY 19¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $2 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 18¢ $1 12h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $4 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL 68¢ $4 15h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 26¢ $2 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL 39¢ $1 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 33¢ $1 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY 35¢ $2 16h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 18¢ $1 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 19h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 78¢ $5 20h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL 85¢ $3 36h
Spread: United States (-1.5) AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 26¢ $1 38h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $2 42h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 42h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada $0 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 43h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 43h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 10¢ $1 43h
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $3 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No $4 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -20.2% -27.8% 30% 30% -29.1%
≤30d 20 -20.2% -27.8% 30% 30% -29.1%
≤90d 20 -20.2% -27.8% 30% 30% -29.1%
all 20 -20.2% -27.8% 30% 30% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 30% -29.1%
10% -34.7% 20% -35.9%
15% -41.0% 20% -42.1%
20% -46.8% 15% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.21 · official $3.22 · 53 history records