Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
23 0x234e…240b sports 167 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,590 (-1%) realized −$1,955 · open +$365
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate62%82W / 51L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$758per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$183est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$23,690now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$837
7 days+$3,611
14 days−$15,267
30 days−$10,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% −$540
other 36% −$3,567
crypto 14% +$1,690
politics 6% −$263
world 3% +$423
economics 2% +$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +52.7% +38.2% 67% 67% +43.0%
≤30d 70 -30.6% -37.2% 40% 34% -27.5%
≤90d 76 -20.8% -28.3% 45% 38% -24.1%
all 133 +4.5% -5.5% 62% 52% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 52% -11.8%
10% -14.5% 41% -20.2%
15% -22.8% 37% -27.9%
20% -30.4% 32% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +48% → late -38% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$534 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$23,690
Realized−$1,955
Unrealized+$365
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses82 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$183
Open positions32
Markets (closed)133 / 167
History coverage140d
Avg bet$758
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 80¢ $2,820 $4,302 +$1,482 (+53%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 58¢ 52¢ $3,199 $2,871 −$328 (-10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 59¢ 77¢ $1,394 $1,825 +$431 (+31%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $1,500 $1,695 +$195 (+13%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 78¢ $1,100 $1,107 +$7 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 90¢ 84¢ $1,100 $1,021 −$79 (-7%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $1,000 $998 −$2 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 74¢ 74¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1,000 $991 −$9 (-1%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $800 $928 +$128 (+16%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 80¢ 58¢ $1,000 $736 −$264 (-26%)
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $612 $654 +$42 (+7%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 94¢ $500 $601 +$101 (+20%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $500 $552 +$52 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $400 $544 +$144 (+36%)
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $500 $543 +$43 (+9%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 68¢ 60¢ $500 $445 −$55 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $400 $396 −$4 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $500 $370 −$130 (-26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $400 $366 −$34 (-8%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 55¢ 54¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $400 $282 −$118 (-29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $400 $270 −$130 (-33%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 21¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+10%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $200 $203 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $203 +$241 +119%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $204 +$596 +291%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $204 +$337 +165%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,012 +$655 +65%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $204 +$485 +238%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $956 +$248 +26%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 26 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 26 $204 −$200 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $1,720 +$1,067 +62%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,012 +$683 +67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,629 −$2,600 -99%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,809 +$337 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 20 $808 −$800 -99%
Epstein client list released by June 30? Jun 20 $700 +$136 +19%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,510 −$2,500 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Bruins vs. Predators Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Men's Group C - Denmark vs. Latvia Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Blues vs. Wild Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Lightning vs. Jets Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Sharks vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Kraken Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Ducks vs. Canadiens Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Rangers vs. Flyers Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Avalanche Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $1,304 −$1,304 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 20 $711 −$711 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $800 −$800 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 20 $924 −$924 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 20 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $2,025 −$2,025 -100%
Will Connor McDavid win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 20 $1,382 −$1,382 -100%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 20 $514 −$514 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Oilers vs. Golden Knights Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Kings vs. Devils Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Rangers vs. Wild Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $324 −$324 -100%
Red Wings vs. Panthers Jun 20 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 55¢ $304 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $1,008 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 24h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 40h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 40h
Will Australia vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,108 44h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $204 44h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $204 44h
Will United States vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 2d
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $203 2d
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $205 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $204 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 2d
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,012 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,720 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $711 7d
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY New Zealand 65¢ $1,010 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,918 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 44¢ $1,017 7d
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $808 8d
Epstein client list released by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $836 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,809 9d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $2,510 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,690.00 · official $23,690.30 (match) · 513 history records