Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x234e…65d2
other · 19 markets active 13h ago
0.0score
+$657 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$624 · open +$34
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Chart Positions 10 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$576
30 days+$624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 94¢ 95¢ $1,533 $1,551 +$19 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 87¢ 88¢ $1,034 $1,046 +$12 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? No 95¢ 100¢ $869 $911 +$42 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 93¢ 90¢ $204 $196 −$8 (-4%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? No 97¢ 97¢ $194 $194 +$1 (+0%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in June? No 96¢ 96¢ $174 $173 −$0 (-0%)
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? No 92¢ 93¢ $125 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 79¢ 82¢ $99 $103 +$4 (+4%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? No 86¢ 87¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 59¢ 62¢ $91 $95 +$4 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? No 93¢ 93¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 58¢ 100¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 05 $120 +$1,679 +1399%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $29,629 −$21,601 -73%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 02 $13,231 +$20,423 +154%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 31 $5,672 +$10 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? May 30 $1,096 +$66 +6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $65 +$6 +9%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? May 20 $3,705 +$19 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? May 20 $1,680 +$20 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 76% +$523
finance 13% +$92
other 10% +$42
tech 1% +$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 94¢ $14 12h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 94¢ $5 13h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 94¢ $5 14h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 94¢ $5 14h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $345 in June? BUY No 92¢ $126 14h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in June? BUY No 97¢ $97 14h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in June? BUY No 96¢ $77 14h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $97 14h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? BUY No 97¢ $97 14h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in June? BUY No 86¢ $95 14h
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,800 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $37 14h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 93¢ $135 14h
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? BUY No 92¢ $41 14h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $100 14h
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? BUY No 87¢ $1,040 14h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $24 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $100 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $1 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $0 7d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL Yes $14 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+148.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 +174.6% +148.4% 89% 33% -8.4%
≤90d 9 +174.6% +148.4% 89% 33% -8.4%
all 9 +174.6% +148.4% 89% 33% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover130.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +148.4% 33% -8.4%
10% +124.7% 33% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here +103.0% 33% -25.2%
20% +83.1% 33% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,538.29 · official $4,538.29 (match) · 3500 history records