Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x234b…4118 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$209 (+16%) realized +$205 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$93
other 45% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +25.0% +13.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
≤30d 12 +25.0% +13.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
≤90d 12 +25.0% +13.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
all 12 +25.0% +13.1% 58% 58% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 58% +20.1%
10% +2.2% 58% +8.6%
15% -7.6% 58% -1.9%
20% -16.7% 33% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$40 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized+$205
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions6
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score No 57¢ 56¢ $101 $100 −$1 (-1%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 58¢ $101 $98 −$3 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+22%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 59¢ 61¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 +$45 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$45 -45%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$39 +39%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $46 +$115 +249%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $98 −$97 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$4 -7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 14 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $98 +$79 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $102 37m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $102 38m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 47m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 85¢ $146 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 58¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 53¢ $10 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $87 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 35¢ $54 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 95¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 94¢ $140 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $99 15h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $101 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 17h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $51 23h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $161 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 72¢ $47 30h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 29¢ $47 30h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 36h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 36h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $46 37h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 37h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY No 70¢ $50 37h
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 66¢ $25 45h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $25 45h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 46h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $173 46h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $329.64 · official $329.92 (match) · 34 history records