Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x2349…1646
weather · 875 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$233 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$239 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$121
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses372 / 561
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions26
Markets (closed)933 / 875
History coverage20d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day170.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 26 History 933 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$418
7 days−$259
14 days−$308
30 days+$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? No 91¢ 85¢ $36 $34 −$2 (-7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 76¢ 69¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-9%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 67¢ 62¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? Yes 49¢ 47¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 43¢ 22¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-49%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+202%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 25¢ 15¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+1100%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+210%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 12? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Emmanuel Macron be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 20? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C or higher on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump be photographed every day this week? (5/11-5/17) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 14? Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 22? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 20? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C or higher on May 15? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -107%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on May 23? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 86°F or higher on May 24? Jun 13 $19 −$10 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on May 20? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on May 20? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on May 18? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on May 21? Jun 13 $6 −$9 -154%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on May 22? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 16? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 23? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on May 13? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on May 22? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? Jun 13 $2 −$7 -299%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 23? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on May 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 24? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on May 20? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C or higher on May 21? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 14? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 15? Jun 13 $0 $0 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on May 24? Jun 13 $3 −$4 -159%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 47°C on May 18? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 22? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on May 14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 21? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 12? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on May 12? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 22? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 37°C or higher on May 24? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 35°C on May 12? Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$689
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
world 0% −$2
politics 0% −$3
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 7¢ $1 0m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 55¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 93¢ $28 7m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $3 8m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 43¢ $4 15m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $9 18m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? SELL No 53¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 92¢ $9 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 38m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 26¢ $3 39m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 39m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 23¢ $2 41m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 42m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $9 43m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 45m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? SELL No 36¢ $3 45m
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 18¢ $1 46m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 47m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 49m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? SELL Yes 42¢ $3 49m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 50¢ $7 55m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $99 56m
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 13? SELL Yes 59¢ $8 57m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $8 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 356 -12.3% -20.7% 28% 19% -15.7%
≤30d 933 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 29% -7.9%
≤90d 933 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 29% -7.9%
all 933 -5.4% -14.4% 40% 29% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover170.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 29% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 18% -16.7%
15% -30.1% 14% -24.8%
20% -37.0% 12% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.36 · official $121.37 (match) · 3500 history records