Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:51:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x2348…0cc6 crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$205 (-20%) realized −$205 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$152
sports 10% −$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
≤30d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
≤90d 15 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
all 15 -36.0% -42.1% 40% 40% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.1% 40% -27.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.6% 13% -34.3%
15% -52.7% 13% -40.7%
20% -57.3% 7% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$40 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$205
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $57 +$25 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 27 $112 −$106 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $129 +$17 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $116 +$75 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$7 -27%
Will Viggo Björck be drafted in the top 5 of the 2026 NHL Draft? Jun 27 $100 −$53 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 27 $235 +$30 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $51 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $156 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 52 history records