Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:21:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
23 0x2347…61a3 world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$5
other 37% +$2
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% −$2
politics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 17 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 17 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 0% -9.0%
all 36 +0.6% -9.0% 53% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 0% -9.1%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage256d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 53¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $54 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $61 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $102 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $64 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $156 +$4 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $54 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $63 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $41 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $171 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $45 +$1 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Dec 22 $6 $0 +5%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 $0 +10%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 21 $7 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 19 $9 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 14 to October 21, 2025 Oct 19 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Oct 17 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 -1%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $54 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $54 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $25 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $19 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $28 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $35 26h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $48 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $67 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $7 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $47 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $11 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $39 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $25 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $22 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $13 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $14 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $66 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $66 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $44 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 158 history records