Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x2344…d2ed weather 299 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$6 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%88W / 207L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -66.3% -69.5% 12% 12% -67.4%
≤30d 89 -11.3% -19.7% 22% 22% -32.5%
≤90d 295 +12.5% +1.8% 30% 30% -8.9%
all 295 +12.5% +1.8% 30% 30% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 30% -8.9%
10% -8.0% 29% -17.6%
15% -16.9% 29% -25.6%
20% -25.0% 29% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$6
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses88 / 207
Open positions4
Markets (closed)295 / 299
History coverage73d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +202%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +170%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $0 $0 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $1 +$4 +271%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 9? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $2 +$8 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 20°C on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 6? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 5? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 4? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 3? Jun 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 3? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$4 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 2? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$10 +335%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 2? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 1? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 1? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $3 +$8 +257%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $3 +$8 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on May 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on May 31? May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 31? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 25h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 47h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.51 · official $3.51 (match) · 558 history records